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The benchmark index Nifty is hitting fresh all-time highs cheering lower commodity prices and expectation of policy rate cut boosting the credit growth cycle in the coming quarters. Rising dollar index is a worrisome sign but excessive liquidity thanks to Bank of Japan’s massive bond buying program is pushing equities higher across the globe. FIIs have pumped in close to 2 billion dollars in the last 20 days keeping rupee in the range of 60-62 against the greenback
As seen from the chart, the Nifty has been moving in a channel since the historic election outcome in May. The Nifty gave false breakouts since then one on the upside in September followed by other on the downside last month. Currently, the Nifty has again broken on the upside moving out of the channel. However, only time will tell whether it is a false breakout and the Nifty will move back in the channel or it has more room to move higher.
December 14, 2014
The Nifty did breakout and manage to stay above 8400 for few days and touch a record high of 8626. However, selling pressure emerged at higher levels and the Nifty moved back inside the trading band only to prove to be another false breakout.