Why it is critical for Nifty to close above 6300 on consistent basis

Riken Mehta 

Follow me on Twitter @mehtariken 

Nifty has crossed 6300 twelve times intra-day in last six years (Four times each in 2008, 2010 and 2013) but managed to close above 6300 only on four occasions.

Below is the table of number days Nifty closed in that range in a particular year

Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
Above 6300
0
0
2
0
0
2
4 days
6000-6300
11
0
40
4
0
62
117 days
5000-6000
48
42
179
193
215
154
831 days
4000-5000
119
114
31
50
36
0
350 days
3000-4000
30
35
0
0
0
0
65 days
2000-3000
38
52
0
0
0
0
90 days
Year range
2524-6288
2573-5201
4718-6312
4544-6157
4637-5930
5285-6317


In 2008 (Nifty made an all-time high but failed to close above 6300)

Nifty touched an all-time high of 6357 on 8-Jan-2008 but closed below 6300 on the very same day. Nifty also touched a low of 2252 in the same year and closed at 2524. Year range (close price): 2524-6288

In 2010 (Nifty made double top around 6300)

Nifty closed above 6300 on couple of days but failed to record a new all-time high and retraced back from 6300 levels to 5752. Nifty also closed in the range of 6000-6300 for 40 days unlike in 2008 (only 11 days). Year range: 4719-6312

In 2013 (Triple top??)

Nifty again closed above 6300 on couple of days but failed to record a new all-time high and is now below 6000. However, the key positive in 2013 (unlike in 2008 and 2010) is that Nifty has closed in 6000-6300 range for 62 days in 2013 which is more than cumulative days of 2008-2012 (55 days) for the same range. Also Nifty has made a good base in the 5000-6000 range. So, it mayl be too early to say that Nifty has made a triple top but for the Nifty to record a new all-time high and rally beyond it, it will need to close consistently above 6300. Year range: 5285-6317

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