Double whammy for India: Dollar Index at 3-year high, Crude at 3-month high

Riken Mehta

Don’t be surprised to see the Indian rupee hitting fresh all-time lows in days to come after the dollar index touched 3-year high on Friday. The latest US non-farm payroll data has exceeded beyond analyst’ expectations signifying that the job creation is happening and the US economy is coming back on growth trajectory. This has further fuelled the speculations of US Fed tapering off the quantitative easing program later this year. 
As seen from the chart, crude and dollar index have moved in the opposite directions. However, with impressive job data, crude has also rallied along with dollar index on expectations of demand for oil picking up in US. Back home, analysts have already predicted the rupee to touch 62-65 levels in this calendar year.  India being net importer of crude will be severely impacted from the current rally in crude and dollar. This will further deteriorate the current account deficit. Also, strength in US dollar will further support the US treasuries leading to more unwinding of positions by the FIIs from the bond market. 

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